The day following Christmas, “Boxing Day”, is a staple in the Premier League fixture. FIFA 17 decided to tempt us with an “Ultimate Pack” release which featured 30 players (all rare) for a whopping 125,000 coin or 2,500 FIFA points. There was no maximum on the number of packs you could buy but there was only a limited amount of packs available to the population within that hour (in the tens of thousands).

I wanted to run an experiment and just see how good or bad these packs were. To date I haven’t seen a more lucrative pack offer: 30 player cards and all rare should bring a pretty nice return, or so they want you to think. Know that I’m fully committed to my mission of “Clean Ultimate Team” and I would never buy packs on FIFA other than to use it to show how much of a scam buying packs really is. Remember ‘Please FUT Responsibly”

For this test, I wanted a large enough sample size so one or two packs wasn’t going to do. I opted to purchase 5 Ultimate Packs (equivalent to 12,500 FIFA points or $105 USD). It’s an expensive experiment but the outcome definitely showed what I wanted to see. If you somehow had enough FIFA coin to pull off this transaction you would be investing 625,000 coin. So let’s keep that in mind when we calculate the ROI on each pack and in total. Packing opening video below.

PACK 1 – 84 SOMMER

The first pack I opened was a complete bust of epic proportions. The highest rated card was an 84 Yann Sommer of Borussia Monchengladbach of the Bundesliga. He was actually one of the first cards I pulled when the game was first released. He’s currently going for around 2,000 and he’s a solid option if you’re building a Bundesliga team but he’s not the type of player you want headlining a 30 player card pack. As you can see from the video a truly awful pack with the only player who is worth a damn on the field is Kalidou Koulibaly but he too is extremely cheap.

Based on the average prices on the market via FUTBin, if you purchased this pack with 125,000 coin you would be underwater by -80.2% or 100,250 coin. Of the 30 cards in the pack, 16 were below an 80 rating (53%) and Sommer was the lone card higher than an 83. Bust. 

PACK 2 – 84 XABI ALONSO

My second pack was marginally better and it would’ve been a great pack had this been FIFA 12. Xabi Alonso was the highest rated card and his 3,000 coin value was the most expensive pull too. David Villa was in the pack as well he’s more or less worthless now that his SBC set is finished. Bacary Sagna and Alvaro Morata round out the noteworthy players, both of which are fringe bench players on a variety of teams.

Based on the average prices on the market via FUTBin, if you purchased this pack with 125,000 coin you would be underwater by -77.8% or 97,200 coin. Of the 30 cards in the pack, 13 were below an 80 rating (43%) with the lone headliner card of Xabi Alonso being above an 83 rating.

PACK 3 – 85 GAITAN

The third pack gets better but nothing amazing, I would’ve hoped a pack like this would’ve been the worst of the bunch but it was near the top. An 85 rated Nicolas Gaitan was the feature card and while some people would get excited over an 85 left winger from La Liga if you look at the numbers he’s pretty much hot garbage. In fact when you line him up against Nani, I would take Nani ten times out of ten and he’s one-third the price. I’m not sure where Gaitan’s 85 rating came from but he’s one of those players who don’t play to the overall on their card.

In this pack finally some decent names that you can slot into teams: 83 Diego Alves, 82 Gylfi Sigurdsson, 82 Ander Herrera, 84 Pepe Reina, 83 Ter Stegen, 83 Pedro, 82 Mauro Icardo and 79 Leroy Sane. No one that will help you get rich but definitely better rated players than the previous two packs.

Based on the average prices on the market via FUTBin, if you purchased this pack with 125,000 coin you would be underwater by -70.6% or 88,200 coin. Of the 30 cards in the pack, 14 were below an 80 rating (47%) but this time a larger penetration of higher rated cards: one 85, one 84 and three 83’s.

PACK 4 – 84 XHAKA

After taking one step forward, we take two steps back in the fourth pack. The headliner card is Granit Xhaka, my least favorite card in all of FIFA 17. Xhaka is awful in every sense of the word. He’s slow, he doesn’t do any one thing particularly well and he’s positioned at the deepest spot in the Premier League. There is a plethora of options in the central midfield. He doesn’t even crack my top 20 and I’m not being sarcastic. I can easily name twenty PL players (84 or less) I would rather have in my line-up at CM or CDM than him, stop me when you disagree: Rooney, Kante, Toure, Matic, Ramsey, Eriksen, Schneiderlin, Mata, Dembele, Oscar, Lallana, Sigurdsson, Can, Fernandinho, Coquelin, Pereya, Barkley, Wilshere, Alli and Henderson,

Xhaka brought a whopping 2,500 coin on the transfer block. The rest of the cards are bottom of the barrel golds and with the exception of 83 Aurier and 81 Bartra I wouldn’t use any of them in an online match.

Based on the average prices on the market via FUTBin, if you purchased this pack with 125,000 coin you would be underwater by -74.2% or 92,800 coin. Of the 30 cards in the pack, 17 were below an 80 rating (57%) the highest such number of the four I’ve opened. Two players are rated an 84 (Xhaka and LaPorte) a combined 6,000 coin between them.

PACK 5 – 83 VIETTO (IF)

On the last pack, I actually pulled an In Form card but of course with my luck the card wasn’t worth a damn. It was an 83 rated Luciano Vietto of Sevilla FC. I can honestly say I’ve never even heard of the guy. He’s a striker with 78 speed, 84 shot and 88 dribbling…not my kind of player. I probably shouldn’t be upset because I pulled an IF but when it’s a wasted card like this then what is the point?

The rest of the pack was actually pretty good, aside from the fact that the three best players I already had: Thiago, Draxler and Renato Sanches are all around 5,000 a piece. But each player is already on my Bundesliga team so straight to the transfer list they went. I’ll gladly take the coin but once again no one new to help upgrade any of my teams.

Based on the average prices on the market via FUTBin, if you purchased this pack with 125,000 coin you would be underwater by -59.36% or 74,200 coin. Of the 30 cards in the pack, 17 were below an 80 rating (57%) from a pure numbers stand point this was the most expensive pack I pulled but again you’re losing far more coin than you’re investing.

CARD RATING DISTRIBUTION

  • 1 card out of 150 cards was rated an 85+ (0.7%)
  • 1 card out of 150 cards was an In Form (0.7%)
  • 51.3%, 77 of those 150 cards, were rated below an 80
  • The average coin value of all 150 cards was 1,150
  • The average card rating of all 150 cards was 79 overall
  • Multiple cards: Coates (x3), Fonte/Diouf/Herrera/Schmeichel/Brooks/Huth (x2)

RETURN ON INVESTMENT

In total, for all 5 packs, the value of the packs were approximately -72% less than the investment in purchasing the packs. In other words you spent 625,000 coin to gain 172,350 worth of player value, a loss of -452,650 coin. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that if you’re buying packs to make money or break even it’s going to be a fruitless proposition. There are only a handful of players worth 125,000+ coin begin with and to think you’ll pull a pack with three 50,000 players is just as unlikely.

Buying packs is the equivalent of buying lottery tickets, you’re hoping for that one in a million (odds are actually worse) chance that you’ll hit the jackpot. Sorry but it’s not going to happen. If you have the coin it’s smarter to just go buy the player you want. Don’t waste your money or coin buying packs when chances are you’ll be disappointed in the end.