By now you’re probably aware that EA Sports have included probabilities for specific card tiers in FIFA 19. This has stemmed from the various litigations around the globe related to “loot boxes” as many regulatory agencies in various governments have deemed this gambling, most notably in Belgium. So due to fear of repercussions in other countries EA has reactively been adding probabilities to every pack in FIFA and Madden Ultimate Team.

The probabilities are still somewhat vague and for me don’t really tell the story I want to see but that’s to be expected.  There is a zero percent chance EA is going to show more granular detail than this, they can’t, it will prove they are manipulating pack weight and card distribution because we know “not all cards are created equal”. EA has to finagle the weight and distribution of cards or else their precious FUT marketplace would be in chaos. Go look at Electronic Arts financial statements and see how much revenue they generate from digital downloads, the number isn’t pure to Ultimate Team it encompasses all the games in their portfolio, the number is staggering. 

Below are the pack odds for a Premium Gold Pack (7,500 coin or 150 FP), the traditional pack they offer all year around no matter the promotion. These packs guarantee you a 75+ gold player (usually around discard value of 300 coin) with a 20% chance of an 82+ rated, a 4.4% chance of an 84+ rated and less than 1% for the current promotional Ones to Watch card.

Does this really even tell us anything at all? I don’t think it does, looks like just a simple X over Y formula. 

# of 84+ rated cards in FIFA 19 = 157

# of total gold cards in FIFA 19 = 2,100

% of 84+ rated cards vs. total = 4%

Are EA really supplying us with pack probabilities or are they just giving us basic arithmetic?

# of 82+ rated cards in FIFA 19 = 314

% of 84+ rated cards vs. total = 15%

On the surface maybe it checks the box against lawsuits and clears EA’s conscience for casuals who spend money on packs and don’t realize they are getting bamboozled, but it doesn’t check off the box for those of us who do put money into the game to try and acquire the best cards. You also have this moving scale where of those 157 cards rated above an 84 there are various probabilities within that tier,  ie:  Ronaldo and Messi differently weighted than Dimitri Payet. I want to see the probability at every rating tier above 84.  I know the answer I just want them to say it, to admit it.

Real Betis midfielder William Carvalho, 84 rated, (2,600 coin) and 84 Moussa Dembele of Tottenham (33,000 coin) aren’t the same thing even though they’re the same rating. No one in their right mind would think they have the same pack weight or pack probabilities but based on the limited information that EA is showing they are presenting as such. 

It’s all common sense but the point is the pack odds don’t give us what we really need to know. The unspoken truth here is that EA are manipulating pack odds, they have to ensure people are still buying packs and burning coins to buy players. The prices of the cards are showing you that, if the odds of packing Dembele are the same as Carvalho then Dembele wouldn’t be 33,000 (15x more costly) despite how much better his card is, the law of supply and demand would push his price down. You can check this be seeing how many of a card are on the market at any given time.

Let’s check shall we:

Dembele cards on the transfer market: 9 web app pages at 10 cards per page, 90 cards < 15 mins remaining

Carvalho cards on the transfer market: 60 web app pages at 10 cards per page, 600 cards <15 mins remaining

Sure yes there are more people selling Carvalho because he’s not usable while Dembele is, but there would also be a larger population who would be selling Dembele to capitalize on his coins especially traders. So via rough math, the odds of getting Carvalho is 6.6x greater than getting Dembele.  Now does that mean the chance of packing Carvalho is 4.4% like the chart shows and that means the odds of getting Dembele are 0.7% (keeps the 6.6x relationship).  There in lies the rub, this is where we know the game is played.

There are two types of packs in this world for non-streamers (who don’t get cards fed from EA): Bas Dost/Jonas and/or 84 rated throw away goalkeepers like Horn, Neto and Lopes.

Over the next few months, I’m going to run a few experiments.  I will be spending $100 on 12,000 FIFA points and charting the outcomes. To keep things fresh I will try and test these during different card promotions and utilizing different packs. I’m doing this so you all don’t have to, we know the outcome will be trash so please don’t waste money buying packs.

✳ – 84+ rated

☯ – 83+ rated (board)

*⃣ – 82+ rated

TEST 2 – PREMIUM GOLD PACKS / Ones-To-Watch

12,000 FP / 150 FP per pack = 80 packs x 7,500 coins = -600,000

Avg. discard pack is ~1,500 coins x 80 packs = +120,000

Card value of all 82 – 84+ players = +55,300

Net Gain/(Loss) -600,000 + 120,000 + 55,300 = (-424,700)

82+ rated cards: 13 of 80 (16%)

84+ rated cards: 3 of 80 (3.8%)

  1. Konoplyanka – 79
  2. Lerma – 79
  3. Salvio – 81
  4. Maicon – 81
  5. Cabella – 78
  6. Subasic – 83  ☯ (1,300 💰) + Mata – 83 ☯ (2,200 💰)
  7. Eder – 79
  8. Schurrle – 78
  9. Blind – 79
  10. Granero – 78
  11. Bardhi – 78
  12. Zobnin – 79
  13. Akinfeev – 80
  14. Pratto – 78
  15. Kruse – 82 *⃣ (850 💰)
  16. Subasic – 83 ☯ (1,300 💰)
  17. Schwolow – 77
  18. Jedvaj – 76
  19. Haps – 75
  20. Khune -78
  21. Boly – 76
  22. Acosta – 77
  23. Milner – 81
  24. Nkoulou – 80
  25. Campana – 79
  26. Ljajic – 80
  27. Mandi – 79
  28. Dembele – 84 ✳ (35,000 💰)
  29. Khedira – 85 ✳ (5,500 💰)
  30. Djaniny – 77
  31. Vogt – 80
  32. Bacca – 82 *⃣ (900 💰)
  33. Pavard – 80
  34. Torres – 77 (IF)
  35. Escudero – 79
  36. Berak – 77
  37. Iturraspe – 78
  38. Jesus Navas – 78
  39. Clichy – 76
  40. Fernandez – 75
  41. Lozano – 80
  42. Piatti – 80
  43. Cyprien – 78
  44. Konate – 76
  45. Thereau – 76
  46. Lopes – 84 ✳ (2,200 💰)
  47. Gotze – 82 *⃣ (1,300 💰)
  48. Marega – 80
  49. Lanzini – 81
  50. Malli – 79
  51. Areola – 81
  52. Ibarguen – 75
  53. Souza – 79
  54. Izquierdo – 77
  55. Hofmann – 78
  56. Battaglia – 79
  57. Sabitzer – 81
  58. Caldara – 80
  59. Howedes – 81
  60. Westwood – 75
  61. Herrera – 82 *⃣ (2,800 💰)
  62. Sommer – 82 *⃣ (750 💰)
  63. Burki – 81
  64. Criscito – 81
  65. Sarr – 76
  66. Dier – 80
  67. Brooks – 80
  68. Karnezis – 79
  69. Dabbur – 76
  70. D’Ambrosio – 76
  71. Genter – 78
  72. Villalba – 75
  73. Sala – 75
  74. Brooks – 80
  75. Joaquin – 82 *⃣ (1,300 💰)
  76. N’Diaye – 77
  77. Roque Mesa – 79
  78. Pickford – 83 ☯ (1,900 💰)
  79. Dalbert – 76
  80. Iturraspe – 78

TEST 1 – PREMIUM GOLD PACKS / No Promotional Cards

12,000 FP / 150 FP per pack = 80 packs x 7,500 coins = -600,000

Avg. discard pack is ~1,500 coins x 80 packs = +120,000

Card value of all 82 – 84+ players = +78,150

Net Gain/(Loss) -600,000 + 120,000 + 78,150 = (-401,850)

82+ rated cards: 13 of 80 (16%)

84+ rated cards: 2 of 80 (2.5%)

  1. Dahoud – 79
  2. Iturbe – 76
  3. Zahavi – 80
  4. McCarthy – 77
  5. Tarkowski – 80
  6. Dembele – 75
  7. Adama – 75
  8. Marcos Llorente – 79
  9. Ferreyra – 78
  10. Lopes – 84 ✳ (2,500 💰)
  11. Mahrez – 85 ✳ (38,500 💰)
  12. Marcal – 77
  13. Lichsteiner – 80
  14. Ryan – 78
  15. Begovic – 79
  16. Otero – 75
  17. Mbabu – 76
  18. Raul – 80
  19. Kiko Casilla – 80
  20. Guilavogui – 79
  21. Herrera – 81
  22. Savic – 83 ☯ (2,000 💰)
  23. Jones – 75
  24. Pavoletti – 78
  25. O. Dembele – 82 + Player Pick (Mandanda – 83) *⃣☯ (5,300 💰) + (1,500 💰)
  26. Corona – 81
  27. Doumbia – 76
  28. Zouma – 78
  29. Clyne – 80
  30. Edgar Mendez – 75
  31. Denisov – 80
  32. Willian Jose – 83 ☯ (2,600💰)
  33. Colley – 75
  34. Canales – 79
  35. Baumann – 83 ☯ (1,700💰)
  36. Guerreiro – 78
  37. Radu – 80
  38. Samaris 76 + Player Pick (Jarstein – 82) *⃣ (850💰)
  39. Giroud 82
  40. De Roon – 76
  41. Samu Castillejo – 83 ☯ (2,500💰)
  42. Ferreyra – 78
  43. Casteels – 82 *⃣ (1,700💰)
  44. Cervi – 80
  45. Gregoritsch – 79
  46. Jankto – 76
  47. Mukiele – 77
  48. Cech – 82 *⃣ (1,400💰)
  49. Aaron Martin – 77
  50. Barrios – 78
  51. Forsberg – 82 *⃣ (1,100💰)
  52. Pereiro – 77
  53. Kimpembe – 83 ☯ (16,500💰)
  54. Forrest – 76
  55. Burki – 81
  56. Santini – 76
  57. Ryan – 78
  58. Pasalic – 76
  59. Charles – 79
  60. Mascherano – 80
  61. Benassi – 77
  62. Guinazu – 75
  63. Hazard – 81
  64. Pere Pons – 78
  65. Raffael – 81
  66. Rudiger – 81
  67. Musacchio – 80
  68. Wood -78
  69. Mario Gaspar – 80
  70. Gaitan – 82
  71. Lavezzi – 79
  72. Alexander Arnold – 78
  73. Ginczek – 76
  74. Vida – 80
  75. Sportiello – 78
  76. Javi Fuego – 78
  77. Dos Santos – 77
  78. Djene – 77
  79. Petersen – 79
  80. Szymanowski – 78